Telecoms Regulation: Telecoms Regulation: Do Stephen Carter's numbers add up ?
My reply to LIndsey was:
"Hi Lindsey,
Thanks for your query – it’s nice to know people read some of the stuff we write !
Interesting that you point out that 27.2m is probably a high figure. Actually I received today Ofcom’s latest market data (see attached). That gives a figure of 23.5m fixed residential lines and 9.5m business lines.
As you rightly suggest I made the simplification of number of premises = number of lines. It could in fact be higher or lower – premises without lines, and multi-line premises. With ADSL, I think we are seeing fewer of the latter. If you do make the simplifying assumption, then the actual figure doesn’t matter much as it is a factor in both the revenue side (N*£6) and in the cost side, and so drops out.
Of course this has all become a little academic, as there is no prospect of the £6 levy being in place before the election, and there is little sign that the Conservatives (who I guess must be odds-on favourites at present) would give this priority.
So I don’t see any nationwide roll-out any time soon. BT will go as far as it can, and CBN groups will try to pick up the slack. My interest is how one can make business cases for those trials work – I think the involvement of local councils who may be able to justify including other benefits may be the way to crack it.
Happy to talk more
Huw"
